The "Black Monday" swept the global market, and the Japanese and Korean stock market suffered a big collapse.

Data data from Big Smart VIP shows that as of the closing of August 5, the succession of the 225 Index's closing of 4451.28 points was reported at 31458.42 points, creating the biggest number of historical declines, a decline of 12.4%.At the same time, ingredients stocks fell all of them, SoftBank Group fell nearly 19%, Tokyo Electronics fell more than 18%, Mitsubishi Ninjian Finance fell nearly 18%.In the market, the Nikkei 225 Volatility Index was suspended due to the fuse mechanism during the day.Guoabong Investment

South Korean stock markets also fell outstandingly.As of the close of Monday (August 5), the South Korean Composite Index closed at 8.77%at 2441.55 points, and the South Korean Coscap index fell more than 11%.In terms of component stocks, Pu Xiang iron and LG chemistry fell nearly 12%, and Samsung Electronics and Kia Auto fell more than 10%.In the market, the South Korean KOSPI index fell 8%to trigger the fuse mechanism, and the transaction was suspended for 20 minutes; the Korean GEM finger also triggered the fusion mechanism after falling 8%.

In addition to the Japanese and South Korean markets, collective adjustments have also appeared in the global stock market.In terms of the Asia -Pacific market, FTSE Singapore Strait Index, FTSE Malaysia Composite Index, Australian S & P 200, Indonesian Composite Index, MSCI Vietnam, and India's Sensex30 Index are all offline.

On Monday (August 5), the opening of the major European stock index also fell across the board. The European Stock 50 Index fell 2.94%, the German DAX index fell 2.43%, the British FTSE 100 index fell 1.77%, and the French CAC40 index fell 1.29%.Among them, after the Turkish stock market opened, the fuse mechanism in the market was triggered twice.

It is worth mentioning that the U.S. stock market fluctuations last week have aroused strong market attention.Last week, the US stock index fell 3.35%, and the S & P 500 fell 2.06%.

Why is the global market suffered heavy frustrations?How does the Japanese and Korean stock market become the "pioneer"?What is the logic of the "yen arbitrage transaction" that drives the global market adjustment?

Regarding the plunge of the Japanese and Korean stock market and the fluctuation of the global capital market, analysts believe that it is mainly the "ebb" of the Federal Reserve's expected expected expected Running transactions, the concerns of the US economic recession, and the "ebb" of the yen arbitrage transaction under the appreciation of the yen.Jinnai Wealth Management

For the Federal Reserve, SDIC Securities said that since July 26, the US economic data continued to cool down at the end of July, PMI data exceeded the expected decline, and non -agricultural and unemployment data data declined significantly.A soft -to -interest rate reduction transaction, the recession of the hard landing directly into the hard landing.

In terms of US economy, Guotai Junan Securities stated that the latest non -agricultural data in the United States ignited concerns about the decline in the US economy, mapping to the financial market, and US stocks continued to decline.In terms of US stocks, on the one hand, US stocks have weakened relatively attractiveness.On the other hand, the exchanges that overseas investors invest in U.S. stocks may decrease.The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut cycle is about to start. Judging from historical experience, the US dollar index has a strong correlation with the Fed’ s monetary policy cycle. The US dollar currency value may be weakened simultaneously, further weakening the exchanges that overseas investors invest in U.S. stocks.

"In addition, many companies such as Tesla, Google, Amazon and other companies have released semi -annual reports. The overall performance is not optimistic, and it has become an important reason for the rebate of US stocks in this round. On the whole, the US economic recession shows that the outlook for US stocks is covered with shadows. In additionOverseas funds outflow and leading stocks are uncomfortable in the flat performance, or will accelerate investors' profit -making behaviors, and U.S. stocks may usher in a period of adjustment.

"What really makes the market nervous is the continuous appreciation of the yen." Zhou Hao, the chief economist of Guotai Junan, analyzed that after the interest rate hike in the Bank of Japan, the yen penetrated the important mark of the USD 150, technically technically.In the case, the Japanese yen exchange rate also got rid of the long -term depreciation channel.

Zhou Hao said that from the exchange rate itself, the appreciation of the yen is a bit anti -normal, because even if Japan raises interest rates, the spread between the yen and the US dollar is still huge.Behind the appreciation of the yen, the easier view of the market is a significant ebb of the yen arbitrage transaction.

It is understood that the so -called "yen arbitrage transaction", that is, the yen, is one of the lowest interest rate currencies in the world. It has been used as an important lending currency, borrowed low -rate yen, and purchased other non -yen assets with high returns.More ideal transactions.Bangalore Stock Exchange

But with the sharp appreciation of the yen, for investors who borrowed the yen, they are facing huge potential losses.Because when returning the yen borrowing, although the yen borrowed at the time was still low, the income obtained on non -yen assets could not make up for the huge losses of the exchange rate.

"From this perspective, the greater the appreciation of the yen, the pressure on the selling pressure of non -yen assets will increase accordingly." Zhou Hao further pointed out. "Even if the investor may not directly intervene in arbitrage transactions, in fact, in factHow much will be affected by arbitrage transactions and often promote the acceleration of these transactions.

According to CICC, although Japanese companies are global business, most of them are listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and issued a yen -pricing financial report. In the context of the yen appreciation, overseas income will be less included in Japan.In Yuan's financial report, the role of "strong yen worsening financial report" was finally formed.

Regarding the subsequent performance of the yen, CICC expects to distinguish whether the global recession will occur during the year.Under the premise of global recession during the year, the yen exchange rate may be appreciated (the logic of further convergence of the US -Japanese monetary policy), Japanese stocks or further declines (the logic of decline in performance and appreciation of the yen).

"On the contrary, under the premise of no global recession during the year, the room for the sharp appreciation of the yen exchange rate or relatively limited, Japanese stocks may rebound (at present, the valuation of Japanese stocks is significantly lower than the average of previous years). Considering that Japan is currently in Japan, Japan is currently in Japan.The obvious fluctuation of assets, the possibility of raising interest rates again in the People's Republic of Japan has decreased significantly during the year. "CICC said.Simla Stock

Cross -border ETF suffered a severe frustration

It was mapped to the domestic market and affected by the plunge of the peripheral stock market. Cross -border ETFs continued to fall on Monday (August 5).As of the close of August 5, Wind data showed that among the 128 cross -border ETFs in the market, 127 closed down, and the remaining 1 flat.

Surging news reporters found that 5 Japanese -stock ETFs on the market "flame".Among them, Hua'an Mitsubishi Ninoder 225ETF, Jingshun Great Wall Nasdaq's technology market value weighted ETF daily limit, ICBC Taihe Nikkei 225ETF, Southern Fund, Southern Fund, Dongying Galaxy Lianchang Fanta Asia Pacific Low Carbon Selection ETF, Yifangda JapanThe three ETFs of 225ETF 225ETF fell more than 9%.In addition, the Southern Dongzhi Index ETF and Huaxia Wild Village 225ETF fell 8.85%and 8.73%on Monday.

Kelvin Tay, chief investor of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in an interview with foreign media, "At this time, entering the Japanese stock market is tantamount to‘ bare -handed white blades ’.

Although TAY admits that some of the previous rise in the Japanese market benefited from the reorganization efforts of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, "the main driving force is the yen."He said that the yen can indicate whether the Japanese stock market will perform well.The only reason for the strong rise of Japanese stocks in the past two years is that the yen has been very weak.As the yen stronger, the stock market fell, "Unfortunately, the Japanese stock market still faces great pressure."

The Office of UBS Wealth Management Investment pointed out that "in the case of the US dollar against the Japanese yen or higher than 150, we may expect that the Japanese stock market will rebound in the short term.A longer time to restore the emotions of investors.Mumbai Wealth Management

"After the steady rebound of mid -July, the US stock market is now becoming more turbulent. UBS believes that the nearby Federal Reserve interest rate cut period, the continuous review of the development of artificial intelligence, and the continuous rise in the US presidential presidential election in November.Political uncertainty means that Japanese investors should prepare for new fluctuations, but avoid excessive reactions to short -term market changes.